David Holmgren

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Future Scenarios 2008 - Revisited

holmgren.com.au

In essence permaculture is a design system for regenerative land use and resilient living. It's also of course based on universal ethics and design principles but the strategies and techniques vary enormously with the context.

En substance, la permaculture est un système de conception pour une utilisation régénératrice des terres et une vie résiliente. Bien entendu, elle repose également sur des principes universels d'éthique et de conception, mais les stratégies et les techniques varient énormément en fonction du contexte.

Visio-conférence donnée le 4 oct 2020

Extraits

Environmental Crisis, Plus (1'31")

Extract
« Corporate scandals and criminal economies, arguably we could say, these are actually a large part, perhaps the dominant part, of the global economy »
Extrait
« Les scandales d'entreprise et les économies criminelles, on pourrait dire qu'ils constituent en fait une grande partie, peut-être la partie dominante, de l'économie mondiale »
Transcript
« It seemed controversial to many at the time:
  • to speak of many of these things. So some of these things like addictive behaviors of course we now recognize these are not just a pharmacological substances but everyday devices, like mobile phones
  • to say National and household debt being unprecedented it was unprecedented in 2007 but nothing like it is now.
  • and corporate scandals and criminal economies, arguably we could say, these are actually a large part, perhaps the dominant part, of the global economy.
  • and illusion and deception and neo-fascist solutions uh also found people were a little bit shocked at me suggesting that back then.
  • geopolitical risk and realignment has turned into reality, most dramatically of course, for all of you people in Europe, but of course in a globally interconnected World these effects are everywhere. »
Transcription
« Cela semblait controversé pour beaucoup à l'époque :
  • de parler de la plupart de ces choses. Ainsi, certaines de ces choses comme les comportements de dépendance, bien sûr, nous reconnaissons maintenant que ce ne sont pas seulement des substances pharmacologiques, mais des appareils de tous les jours, comme les téléphones portables.
  • La dette nationale et des ménages est sans précédent, elle était sans précédent en 2007, mais rien de comparable à ce qu'elle est maintenant.
  • Les scandales d'entreprises et les économies criminelles, dont on pourrait dire qu'ils constituent une grande partie, voire la partie dominante, de l'économie mondiale.
  • L'illusion, la tromperie et les solutions néo-fascistes : les gens étaient un peu choqués que je suggère cela à l'époque.
  • Le risque et le réalignement géopolitiques sont devenus une réalité, de façon spectaculaire bien sûr, pour vous tous en Europe, mais bien sûr dans un monde globalement interconnecté, ces effets sont partout. »
Source
https://tube.aquilenet.fr/w/29QnuvgjoyoFpiRyTEoXzx

Synergy of strong central governement with corportate power : Fascisme

Transcript
« ...but in fact when I looked at things, progressively, I saw that the main thing that was happening, was, Society was shifting rapidly away from a sort of so-called free market mechanisms, to a command economy, where governments start mandating what happens, but to do that they need the economic and Technical power of global corporations. And so, this Synergy of strong central government and corporate power, was coming to the fall, and of course the technical description for that which Mussolini defined, was fascism. »
Source
https://tube.aquilenet.fr/w/e2nXvFhMAvRWQTkywooBGb


International order breaking down - WW3 : OCDE vs National sovereignty

Transcript
« When the International order that allows trade to occur, where there is a dominant hegemonic power behind that, I think it's really important to understand that there's been a hard fist in that over the last 50 years, of smashed countries that have got out of line with what that International order is, along with all the positive aspects of it. And that is now breaking down, and clearly I think we are in the equivalent of the third world war.
And that that war is between the global power represented primarily in the OECD countries, but especially in the United States and in Europe, and new alliances which are forming with countries in a multi-polar world, which although they have very different views about things, they all have strong views about National sovereignty to determine their own circumstances. »
Source
https://tube.aquilenet.fr/w/qgaWC8rct4hdM3HrZXSvDo

Dark because no respect for difference in globalist view of the world

Transcript
« I see that those changes are coming very fast and the ability to hold together the International System lead in America is actually breaking down. And I think that's going to be sort of particularly dark, but not because the breakdown from International systems could not be otherwise.
But the re-emergence of respect for difference is a key permaculture principle which has actually been lacking in the globalist view of the world.
There is actually one way to do things and then cultures are some local artifacts that exist, like local landscape. And in fact local landscape and local cultures will actually reassert themselves. But it is possible that that could be with a greater tolerance and respect for difference, different ways of doing things. It's not certain, in any means, but I think that is possible. »
Source
https://tube.aquilenet.fr/w/24uAgNhtCUPxys1skoSNHJ

Vidéo complète - 35 chapitres - 1h42

Chapitres
0:00 Intro - Sébastien Marot

7:16 Intro - David Holmgren

7:55 Melliodora 2019 - EPFL Lausanne Oct 2022

9:56 Future Scenarios 2008 - Revisited

11:00 What Is Permaculture?

12:22 Environmental Crisis, Plus

13:52 Limits to Growth (1972) - World 3 model simulation

15:10 Humanity's Future?

22:07 What Is Energy Descent?

23:48 What will our future look like?

24:33 Climate Change and Peak Oil drive Energy Descent Scenarios

26:17 GreenTech

28:33 Brown Tech

31:00 Earth Steward

33:02 Lifeboats

35:08 Confusion of Realms

36:46 Opportunities from energy descent

39:16 Scenario probabilities

41:16 History from the future - a prosperous way down

41:45 Nested Scenarios (by scale of related system)

44:04 Brasilia

44:33 Agriculture and Architecture - Taking the Country's Side - Scenari Incorporation

46:06 Scenario Infiltration

47:33 Scenario Integration

48:49 Scenario Secession

49:28 Resources from holmgren.com.au

50:47 Questions

51:48 Pandemic teaching about BrownTech scenario onset

1:01:09 Bottom-up initiative support

1:08:02 Urban planners

1:14:15 Internationalism shift to more lower centers if identity

1:20:38 Nature's design solutions : aware of limits

1:28:13 No more traditionnal city?

1:33:05 Bio-region

1:40:09 Conclusion

Copies d'écran

This Green and Pleasant Apocalypse: Graham Oakley’s ‘Henry’s Quest’ (1986)

Ressources externes communes